Sunday, January 29, 2006

Today I read a very good analysis by Aluf Benn about the 'blessings' of democracy in the Middle East. It is relatively easy to do business with dictators and regimes, but the 'will of the people' is often much more radical and anti-Israel than those regimes. Ofer Shelah of Yedioth/Ynet, tells us that and how it is impossible to predict electoral surprises, see for instance the victories of Nethanyahu over Peres in 1996 ( well, those who are cynical could say that the mere fact that Shimon Peres was a candidate said something, but I think that is too easy ): "A flexible security organization would be able – and the Shin Bet has done this superbly in recent years – to give great tactical intelligence to enable the relevant powers to identify and act against specific targets. But it has no way – because there is no way – to predict cultural and political trends."

No comments: