Saturday, June 13, 2009
The analysts appear to have been 'wrong' to predict that the high voter turnout in Iran favored the so-called reformist candidate. Whether the apparent landslide victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a result of election fraud or not is not really relevant, also since it is hardly probable that the results can be seriously challenged. Although Mir-Hossein Mousavi Khameneh looked and sounded more sympathetic and hopeful than his main opponent ( hey, even Hugo Chavez looks funny and sympathetic when he stands next to Ahmadinejad ), I am cynical enough to believe that Realpolitikally this analysis by Soli Shahvar ( who used to work at the same department where I got my M.A. ) is largely correct. If I were Bibi, I would start sucking up to Barack Obama ( he knows very well what he has to do to find favor in the eyes of Washington and the West (*)). Otherwise Israel will have to face Iran alone, sooner ( or later ). (*)P.S.: I was surprised to read this article the other day. I never heard of the 'institute' that published the poll. Now that I know which 'university' sponsored the poll, and which newspaper published its results, I am slightly reassured. Which does not mean that I believe that this government will seriously consider any real steps towards ending the occupation, or that Mr Nethanyahu will pleasantly amaze us with his upcoming speech.
Posted by Bert at 8:37 AM