Thursday, July 19, 2012

A War Looking for a Cause



I cannot help but agreeing with Amir Oren. His analysis of yesterday's terror attack in Bulgaria and its implications hits several nails on their heads. Some quotes:

Netanyahu and Barak are eager to deploy IDF forces on an attack mission targeting nuclear facilities in Iran. They lack a convincing excuse, since the Iranians have not yet decided whether to manufacture nuclear weapons, and U.S. President Barack Obama is busy with other things until November – issues that could only be sidetracked by the sounds of explosions in the Persian Gulf.
An Israeli-Iranian war, one that would pose significant economic threats – is the last hope harbored by Obama’s rivals. 
 There will be much temptation to create a serious of incitements and counters, and during the third phase, after an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli retaliation, the jets will take off for the east.  If it happens quickly, Netanyahu and Barak will be spared having to deal with two bothersome events set for August, the second evacuation of some thirty people from Migron, and the first IDF call up for ultra-Orthodox conscripts.
As in Lebanon in 1982, Iran is a war looking for an excuse. The “Belli” is ready; It only needs the “Casus.” Netanyahu and Barak must not be allowed to find them in Burgas. 

I have written it several times on this blog, in various wordings: I am afraid that this government will eventually decide to attack Iran at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons, which will cause that war to be fought the wrong way and to have a very very bad outcome, for all of us (apart from the ayatollahs and the Islamists, and maybe also Israel's own religious and nationalist fanatics). This does not mean that Hizbollah, Iran, and all other enemies of the Jewish state should not be fought, au contraire, but that war should be fought wisely, at the right time, in the right way (including diplomacy, working with potential and actual allies), with the right tools, and - for heaven's sake - for the right reasons. Political survival, stubbornness, and being unable/unwilling to face tough political choices do not justify starting a war, particularly not a war that has too many unknown and unpredictable factors. At least, that's what I think.


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